Maritime data show Middle East crude exports briefly exceeded prewar levels in late September

What happened: Shipping data indicate Middle East crude oil exports rose above prewar averages on four days during the final week of September (September 25–31), despite attacks on vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

Attribution and details: Kepler, a ship-tracking firm, provided preliminary data showing regional crude exports increased on September 24 and again from September 27–29, reaching roughly 19.5–22.5 million barrels per day on those days. For comparison, average daily crude exports for March 2024–February 2025 (the year before the war began) were about 18 million barrels per day.

Related note: Independent Farsi reported the same finding, noting the increase occurred even as attacks targeted ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. The outlet also reported that LNG shipments out of the Strait of Hormuz rose in Shahrivar (September) to the highest monthly level since Esfand 1404 (March 2026).